A Stupid Response to Peak Oil

Interesting article supporting your earlier claim.
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

I have not read the article in its entirety, but I must say that as I read it I got both scared and, at the same time, incredibly motivated by an expanding opportunity that may be heading our way.

Can you imagine the amount of resources that would become available for alternative energy sources if people could no longer run their automobiles or data centers due to an energy crisis. I believe a crisis of this sort may very well bring economic hardship, but at the same time, a massive re-allocation of capital. Capital investment can fuel huge economic growth.

You mentioned Black Tuesday in our conversation the other day in a comparison of what would happen with an oil peak. This historical crisis was the product of mass speculation and irresponsible lending to individuals investing in the stock market (most of which is now illegal). At least in the tech sector, I would say, that the market is far less speculative than it was during the .com's. Prices are based more on earnings than in most times of economic prosperity in the field. In a comparison with the Great Depression, an energy crisis might very well become a World War II.

The area where I see some of the most speculative pricing is in the oil industry itself. Prices are high in anticipation of a shortage to come; not one that is already here.

The one area I am more fearful than any other is real estate. The irresponsible lending of banks does echo something of a 1929 crash. Mortgage brokers have been preying on the irresponsible lending tendencies of those wanting to keep up with the Jones, and the banks have been playing along. That has already started to fall apart, as is evident with the write down's of huge amounts of loans. These incidents have lead to the recent firings of several CEOs (Citigroup for one, who's CEO lost 8 billion dollars within a year.)



I'm going to post this on my blog at the risk of looking like an idiot so I get some other perspectives. Kanda is my economic advisor and can tear me apart - which I encourage him to do. You hear that kanda. Move this conversation to http://briancochran.blogspot.com